Press reports of a projected 70 per cent surge in HIV infections are based on false suppositions. 

A recent report from the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research caused a stir in the mainstream press, allegedly indicating a 73.5 per cent increase in Victorian HIV infections by 2015.

Mathematical modeling expert Dr David Wilson was quoted as saying that increasing rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and a decline in condom use would drive the rise. He projected the infection rate in NSW would fall.

Mike Kennedy of the Victorian Aids Council (VAC) said the projection was only as good as the assumptions on which it was based.

“It’s a worst-case scenario assuming the government and the community don’t do anything, but in fact the government and community are doing something,” he said.

Campaigns are already under way tackling unprotected anal sex and condom use, and promoting the testing and treatment of STIs.

And last week PLWHA Speakers Bureau launched a new booklet aimed at school principals, on protecting young Australians traveling overseas from HIV.

Michael Wooldridge, the federal government’s chief HIV advisor, said the report did not take into account the good work done in Victoria over the last year.

“It shows what would have happened if Victoria continued to do little about it. I’m optimistic that the changes of the last 12 months in Victoria means that when this is done again in four years time, our future will be similar to that of NSW.”

by DOUG POLLARD